Inflight transmission of COVID-19 based on experimental aerosol dispersion data

Abstract Background An issue of concern to the travelling public is possibility in-flight transmission coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) during long- and short-haul flights. The aviation industry maintains that probability contracting illness small based on reported cases, modelling data from aerosol dispersion experiments conducted on-board aircraft. Methods Using experimentally derived for a B777-200 aircraft modified version Wells-Riley equation we estimate inflight infection range scenarios involving quanta generation rate face mask efficiency. Quanta rates were selected COVID-19 events in literature while efficiency was determined experiments. Results MID-AFT cabin exhibits highest probability. calculated maximum individual (without masks) 2-hour flight this section varies 4.5% ‘Mild Scenario’ 60.2% ‘Severe although corresponding average 0.1% 2.5%. For 12-hour flight, 24.1% 99.6% 0.8% 10.8%. If all passengers wear masks throughout can be reduced by ~73%/32% high/low masks. are worn except one-hour meal service, increased 59%/8% compared situation where not removed. Conclusions This analysis has demonstrated there significant reduction concentration due nature ventilation filtration system, does necessarily mean low or risk infection. However, wearing, particularly high-efficiency ones, significantly reduces risk.